The Transcript 10.19.20

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Succinct Summary: Earnings season kicked off this week.  The nation’s big banks reported earnings and for the most part provided positive economic commentary.  We are seeing a return to a generally sound economy and confidence has improved a lot.  Credit performance has been much better than expected and if nothing changes banks probably have a lot of excess reserves.  The election creates the potential for near-term volatility but the end of the pandemic is hopefully in sight.

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The Transcript 10.12.20

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Succinct Summary: The economy has had a strong but incomplete recovery.  The worst seems to be over but there’s still a long way to go.  For many industries, this looks like a K shaped recovery.

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The Transcript 10.05.20

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Succinct Summary: This has been the most difficult crisis that the US has faced since most people can remember.  An economic recovery is underway but the pace of job growth may be slowing.  Companies in the hardest-hit industries are asking for more stimulus.

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The Transcript 09.28.20

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Succinct Summary: The economy has improved a lot since the bottom, and headline economic activity is nearing a full recovery.  However, the recovery has not been shared equally.  There have been a small number of big economic winners and a much larger number of economic losers from COVID.  This will help keep the government pushing for more stimulus for a long time.  In the past, this stimulus has tended to help the winners even more.

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The Transcript 09.21.20

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Succinct Summary: This has been an incredibly difficult operating environment but we’re all learning to live in a world with Covid.  Economic activity is much better than anyone expected and government officials are pushing for even more stimulus.  The Fed expects to keep interest rates at zero until 2023.

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