The Transcript 11.23.20

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Succinct Summary: Retailers reported strong quarters last week showing that the US consumer remains resilient despite high unemployment.  A new wave of Covid could slow the economy back down but vaccines are almost here.  It will be interesting to see what behaviors have been permanently altered by the pandemic and which ones will return to the way that they were.  Business travel is one thing that may be permanently changed.

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The Transcript 11.16.20

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Succinct Summary: Pfizer announced that its vaccine is 90% effective and that gave a boost to market confidence. The vaccine could be great news for the industry and great news for society. Pfizer says that it will have over 1B doses ready next year. The vaccine could lead to some reflationary outcomes.

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The Transcript 11.09.20

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Succinct Summary: It was hard to pay attention to anything other than politics last week, but we’re trying our best to keep a focus on the economy. Economic activity appears robust from the earnings reports that we’re reading. Even the hardest-hit industries appear to be performing much better than expected. The tech industries that surged may be normalizing though. We’re getting a strong new surge in Covid cases, but people seem to feel more prepared than they did last spring.

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The Transcript 11.02.20

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Succinct Summary: Most parts of the economy have normalized and the economic winners are booming.  Technology, cloud service and e-commerce are leading the way and other industries are surging as well.  Financial service firms focused on M&A advisory, trading and restructuring are seeing strong business.  The housing market is also on fire with new home sales up 32% y/y.  This week’s election and a renewed wave of COVID could dampen activity, but for now, the economy is doing remarkably well.  COVID may have led to structurally higher productivity.

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The Transcript 10.26.20

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Succinct Summary: The economy continues its two speed recovery, but there are some signs that growth may be slowing.  Even companies that benefitted from the pandemic, like Netflix, are seeing the after-effect of demand that was pulled forward to earlier in the year.  Elections will be a key source of uncertainty in the coming weeks.  And COVID infections are stubbornly high.  But consumers are going crazy at home.

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