Succinct Summary: 2020 begins with a surge of optimism. The consumer continues to be a bright spot for the economy and business sentiment seems to be turning a corner. Fundamentals are strong and the cherry on top is that interest rates remain low. Capital markets love this environment.
Succinct Summary: The main takeaway is the dichotomy between a US consumer economy that is doing well and a manufacturing sector that is weak. The uncertainty and slow growth will certainly continue into 2020.
Succinct Summary: The consumer continues to show strength with higher holiday spending. Business spending isn’t quite as strong though but companies, especially small businesses, are optimistic. As such, most CEOs don’t expect a recession in 2020. Historically, presidential election years are usually good for the stock market.
Succinct Summary: The story has been the same for most of this year. Consumer spending and sentiment remains strong while business investment and sentiment stay weak. There may be signs of an industrial uptick in China though.
Succinct Summary: The trade war has been weighing on the economy for most of the year. Businesses have been hesitant to invest due to the uncertainty and have been trying to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Still, the consumer has been remarkably resilient. Overall the economy is stable but not quite as strong as it was a couple of years ago.