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The Newsletter

The Transcript 12.14.20

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December 14, 2020

- The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: Capital markets are ending 2020 with a bang thanks in part to last week’s hot IPOs.  Business leaders are feeling confident about 2021 and expect next year’s earnings to exceed 2019’s.  Consumer spending is similarly strong.  Even the housing market is stronger than in ’05.  It’s a K shaped recovery for some industries but a vaccine should unleash pent up demand and high unemployment means that interest rates will stay low for longer. Readers should keep an eye on growing supply chain bottlenecks.  This could be a source of some inflationary pressure.

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The Newsletter

The Transcript 12.07.20

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December 7, 2020

- The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: Consumer spending remains strong and Black Friday was successful.  A third wave of COVID has made the near term outlook worse, but the medium to long term looks much brighter thanks to vaccines.  Tech spending continues to outpace overall GDP growth and probably will continue to surge after the pandemic is over. The driver of spending has moved from devices towards data infrastructure and management.

Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

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The Newsletter

The Transcript 11.16.20

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November 16, 2020

- The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: Pfizer announced that its vaccine is 90% effective and that gave a boost to market confidence. The vaccine could be great news for the industry and great news for society. Pfizer says that it will have over 1B doses ready next year. The vaccine could lead to some reflationary outcomes.

Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

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The Newsletter

The Transcript 08.16.20

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August 16, 2020

- The Newsletter

Succinct Summary: The Great Recession of ’08 pales in comparison to the kind of recession that we have here. The UK just recorded the worst quarterly recession on record. The virus levels remain stubbornly high in many places. The hope comes from the modest recovery in some hard-hit industries. 

Editor’s Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

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The Newsletter

The Transcript 11.18.19

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November 18, 2019

- The Newsletter

Succinct Summary:  The economic expansion is now in its 11th year. The US consumer remains strong but business investment has been weak. A stat on the real effect of the trade war: Samsonite has taken its supply chain from 90% China production to 67 %, and is intent on reducing it further to 50%. Meanwhile, air flights and India are the final frontiers of the internet.

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