The Transcript 09.21.20

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Succinct Summary: This has been an incredibly difficult operating environment but we're all learning to live in a world with Covid.  Economic activity is much better than anyone expected and government officials are pushing for even more stimulus.  The Fed expects to keep interest rates at zero until 2023. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 07.27.20

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Succinct Summary: The economy was rebounding in May and June, but the recovery seems to have stalled out as infections have rebounded.  CEO commentary was particularly negative last week.  Business leaders are rapidly losing confidence and do not see a V-shaped recovery materializing.  There's a sense that government stimulus appears to be the only thing propping up the economy and it's creating distortions in unemployment and financial markets.  Still (perhaps because of this stimulus) the hot housing market suggests that consumers may not actually be in such bad shape after all--just spending on different things. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 04.27.20

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Succinct Summary: The decline in economic activity has been huge and the recovery may take longer than expected.  However, bulls are betting on massive stimulus in an environment that was already highly liquid prior to the Covid crisis.  Consumers are itching to get back to normal and some hard hit industries are seeing stabilizing trends.  But the economy is subject to the machinations of non-economic forces: governments and a poorly understood disease. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.