The Transcript 10.05.20

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Succinct Summary: This has been the most difficult crisis that the US has faced since most people can remember.  An economic recovery is underway but the pace of job growth may be slowing.  Companies in the hardest-hit industries are asking for more stimulus. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 09.28.20

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Succinct Summary: The economy has improved a lot since the bottom, and headline economic activity is nearing a full recovery.  However, the recovery has not been shared equally.  There have been a small number of big economic winners and a much larger number of economic losers from COVID.  This will help keep the government pushing for more stimulus for a long time.  In the past, this stimulus has tended to help the winners even more. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 09.21.20

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Succinct Summary: This has been an incredibly difficult operating environment but we're all learning to live in a world with Covid.  Economic activity is much better than anyone expected and government officials are pushing for even more stimulus.  The Fed expects to keep interest rates at zero until 2023. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 07.27.20

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Succinct Summary: The economy was rebounding in May and June, but the recovery seems to have stalled out as infections have rebounded.  CEO commentary was particularly negative last week.  Business leaders are rapidly losing confidence and do not see a V-shaped recovery materializing.  There's a sense that government stimulus appears to be the only thing propping up the economy and it's creating distortions in unemployment and financial markets.  Still (perhaps because of this stimulus) the hot housing market suggests that consumers may not actually be in such bad shape after all--just spending on different things. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 05.04.20

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Succinct Summary: This week was the height of earnings season and it was a little surreal to see the magnitude of revenue declines in some industries. These declines weren't surprising though and many companies said that there were signs of recent stabilization. However, markets have pinned hopes on a V shaped recovery. If we don't get a V there could be a second wave of volatility. The most concerning data point from this week is that China and Italy are experiencing U shaped recoveries. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.