The Transcript 07.06.20

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Succinct Summary: The economy has had a strong rebound, but the rising virus cases in some states are a cause for worry.  Consumers are fatigued from the virus but starting to accept that it may take a while for things to get back to normal.  And the old normal may never return.  Technology companies have been major beneficiaries of quarantine.  Companies are "splurging" on tech. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 05.18.20

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Succinct Summary: Economic activity is trending positively as shelter in place orders are slowly lifted around the economy. The data is better than it was but still very bad for any other environment. Markets have discounted a quick return to normalcy, but this week's comments suggest that business leaders expect the recovery to take longer. For the hardest-hit industries, it could be years before they are operating at peak levels again. And even if demand snapped back today it could take months for the supply side of the economy to rev back up. Importantly, employment will likely rebound slower than the rest of the economy, which is a big deal for the demand side of the economy given how high unemployment numbers are. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 11.18.19

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Succinct Summary:  The economic expansion is now in its 11th year. The US consumer remains strong but business investment has been weak. A stat on the real effect of the trade war: Samsonite has taken its supply chain from 90% China production to 67 %, and is intent on reducing it further to 50%. Meanwhile, air flights and India are the final frontiers of the internet.