The Transcript 10.19.20

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Succinct Summary: Earnings season kicked off this week.  The nation's big banks reported earnings and for the most part provided positive economic commentary.  We are seeing a return to a generally sound economy and confidence has improved a lot.  Credit performance has been much better than expected and if nothing changes banks probably have a lot of excess reserves.  The election creates the potential for near-term volatility but the end of the pandemic is hopefully in sight. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 09.14.20

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Succinct Summary: The first few weeks of September are usually filled with conferences where companies talk about long term industry trends.  This year it's hard to look long term because things have been moving so fast.  Still, the Covid rush seems to have calmed down some and the US is getting comfortable with a new normal.  The big question on people's minds: do we ever get back to the old normal?

The Transcript 07.27.20

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Succinct Summary: The economy was rebounding in May and June, but the recovery seems to have stalled out as infections have rebounded.  CEO commentary was particularly negative last week.  Business leaders are rapidly losing confidence and do not see a V-shaped recovery materializing.  There's a sense that government stimulus appears to be the only thing propping up the economy and it's creating distortions in unemployment and financial markets.  Still (perhaps because of this stimulus) the hot housing market suggests that consumers may not actually be in such bad shape after all--just spending on different things. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 07.20.20

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Succinct Summary: The economy rebounded strongly in May and June with some important economic figures, like spending on debit and credit cards, being only down low single digits from last year. But the recovery is starting to stall out as infections rise and now everyone is planning for Covid to last longer than initially expected.  The figures are being distorted by massive government stimulus though.  And it's not clear what happens when that stimulus runs out even as markets seem to be betting on more stimulus. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 06.22.20

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Succinct Summary: Demand continues to bounce back but there are signs that a second wave of Covid may be bubbling up. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.