The Transcript 07.27.20

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Succinct Summary: The economy was rebounding in May and June, but the recovery seems to have stalled out as infections have rebounded.  CEO commentary was particularly negative last week.  Business leaders are rapidly losing confidence and do not see a V-shaped recovery materializing.  There's a sense that government stimulus appears to be the only thing propping up the economy and it's creating distortions in unemployment and financial markets.  Still (perhaps because of this stimulus) the hot housing market suggests that consumers may not actually be in such bad shape after all--just spending on different things. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 07.20.20

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Succinct Summary: The economy rebounded strongly in May and June with some important economic figures, like spending on debit and credit cards, being only down low single digits from last year. But the recovery is starting to stall out as infections rise and now everyone is planning for Covid to last longer than initially expected.  The figures are being distorted by massive government stimulus though.  And it's not clear what happens when that stimulus runs out even as markets seem to be betting on more stimulus. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 04.20.20

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Succinct Summary: The modern economy has never experienced economic carnage on the scale of COVID19.  US GDP is forecast to fall by 30-40% while unemployment is likely to rise to 20-30%.  What matters though, is how long it lasts.  A 30% rate of decline in production for a quarter is different from a 30% decline for a whole year.  As public attention seems to turn from the virus to the economy, debate is on whether we will see a V-shaped recovery or not.  There are lots of reasons why we are unlikely to see such a rapid recovery but there are also glimmers of economic hope.  Still, the path of the economy seems to pale in comparison to the importance of the path of humanity. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.  

The Transcript 04.06.20

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Succinct Summary: The next two weeks could be very painful for the US but hopefully we are approaching the peak for the growth of infections.  Still, the economy could be locked down for a long time and no one really knows how things will look as we come out of this.  It's hard to keep the consumer down. Reminder: This weekly newsletter is supported by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep the Transcript going.