Succinct Summary: The modern economy has never experienced economic carnage on the scale of COVID19. US GDP is forecast to fall by 30-40% while unemployment is likely to rise to 20-30%. What matters though, is how long it lasts. A 30% rate of decline in production for a quarter is different from a 30% decline for a whole year. As public attention seems to turn from the virus to the economy, debate is on whether we will see a V-shaped recovery or not. There are lots of reasons why we are unlikely to see such a rapid recovery but there are also glimmers of economic hope. Still, the path of the economy seems to pale in comparison to the importance of the path of humanity. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.
Succinct Summary: The next two weeks could be very painful for the US but hopefully we are approaching the peak for the growth of infections. Still, the economy could be locked down for a long time and no one really knows how things will look as we come out of this. It's hard to keep the consumer down. Reminder: This weekly newsletter is supported by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep the Transcript going.
Succinct Summary: It's hard not to be happy about the economy. The consumer is strong and business sentiment has turned positive. Recession fears have abated thanks to the actions of central banks and a trade truce with China. Markets are feeling optimistic.
Succinct Summary: 2020 begins with a surge of optimism. The consumer continues to be a bright spot for the economy and business sentiment seems to be turning a corner. Fundamentals are strong and the cherry on top is that interest rates remain low. Capital markets love this environment.
Succinct Summary: The main takeaway is the dichotomy between a US consumer economy that is doing well and a manufacturing sector that is weak. The uncertainty and slow growth will certainly continue into 2020.