The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of the hardest-hit industries’ activity is beginning to tick back up above 2019 levels. Along with that boom, there are clear signs of inflation and concerns about overheating. Even Janet Yellen seemed concerned for a few hours last week.
The economy is booming and companies are expecting robust growth in the second half of 2021 and 2022. Travel is starting to rebound and cities are coming back to life. Stimulus has left consumers with a tremendous amount of liquidity and we are spending. Institutional investors are increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures.
It’s hard to remember that there’s still a pandemic going on. Vaccination rates have increased and it looks like we may be on the cusp of a roaring 20s. Consumers are healthy and eager to make up for lost time–booking travel and eating out. Offices will probably re-open by the end of summer but working from home is likely to remain an option.
Covid cases are dropping, vaccines are being administered and warmer weather is coming. Fatigued consumers are ready to return to normal. We especially miss traveling.
Markets went haywire last week thanks (so the story goes) to some retail traders in a Reddit forum led by a man named Roaring Kitty. It was hard to pay attention to much of anything else in capital markets, but it was also a busy week for earnings. Industrial companies said that demand was “very, very, very strong” and there was an abundance of commentary on price pressures. Jerome Powell isn’t worried though. Game on!
Succinct Summary: The US got a new President last week, and the new administration is pledging more stimulus. The economy continues to chug along though and there are signs of tight capacity in some segments, especially transportation networks. Could additional stimulus lead to higher-than-expected inflation?
Succinct Summary: Vaccinations are happening around the US and the world. It’s been a little slower than hoped but that may be because of the logistical challenges of administering vaccines at long-term care facilities. We are on the cusp of mass dissemination, and there should be enough capacity to make sure that the population is vaccinated quickly. We’ve lost a year of our lives to COVID but the finish line is (hopefully) in sight. Vaccination should unleash a huge amount of pent up demand. Banks, which started to report this week, have showed that credit performance metrics have been better than anyone dreamed possible in March of 2020. They’re releasing reserves and preparing to return capital to shareholders. Tech spend is also booming.
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Succinct Summary: Capital markets are ending 2020 with a bang thanks in part to last week’s hot IPOs. Business leaders are feeling confident about 2021 and expect next year’s earnings to exceed 2019’s. Consumer spending is similarly strong. Even the housing market is stronger than in ’05. It’s a K shaped recovery for some industries but a vaccine should unleash pent up demand and high unemployment means that interest rates will stay low for longer. Readers should keep an eye on growing supply chain bottlenecks. This could be a source of some inflationary pressure.
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Succinct Summary: Consumer spending remains strong and Black Friday was successful. A third wave of COVID has made the near term outlook worse, but the medium to long term looks much brighter thanks to vaccines. Tech spending continues to outpace overall GDP growth and probably will continue to surge after the pandemic is over. The driver of spending has moved from devices towards data infrastructure and management.
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Succinct Summary: Retailers reported strong quarters last week showing that the US consumer remains resilient despite high unemployment. A new wave of Covid could slow the economy back down but vaccines are almost here. It will be interesting to see what behaviors have been permanently altered by the pandemic and which ones will return to the way that they were. Business travel is one thing that may be permanently changed.
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