Succinct Summary: The modern economy has never experienced economic carnage on the scale of COVID19. US GDP is forecast to fall by 30-40% while unemployment is likely to rise to 20-30%. What matters though, is how long it lasts. A 30% rate of decline in production for a quarter is different from a 30% decline for a whole year. As public attention seems to turn from the virus to the economy, debate is on whether we will see a V-shaped recovery or not. There are lots of reasons why we are unlikely to see such a rapid recovery but there are also glimmers of economic hope. Still, the path of the economy seems to pale in comparison to the importance of the path of humanity. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.
Succinct Summary: It is quite clear by now that we are in a recession. The hope is that this is a different kind of recession and that we will be out of it quickly. But that depends on the trajectory of containing the virus. The good news is that things in China look better after containing the virus. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading and want to help us keep it going, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month).
Succinct Summary: Worries about the impact of the Coronavirus are at the top of mind for management teams. The positive thing is activity is picking up in China and the impact is not expected to be long-term. Short -term worries persist, but elections may be the bigger long term risk to US markets in 2020.
Succinct Summary: Companies are now growing increasingly worried about the short-term impact of the Coronavirus. Those with exposure to China are issuing wider-than-normal guidance. Despite this, most are cautiously optimistic on overall growth.
Succinct Summary: It's hard not to be happy about the economy. The consumer is strong and business sentiment has turned positive. Recession fears have abated thanks to the actions of central banks and a trade truce with China. Markets are feeling optimistic.