Tens of millions of Americans have now been fully vaccinated and the fun is just beginning. Re-opening euphoria and pent-up demand could lead to an economic boom that lasts into 2023. Supply chains, especially semiconductors, are still feeling the effects of Covid, and price pressures continue.
Succinct Summary: Vaccinations are happening around the US and the world. It’s been a little slower than hoped but that may be because of the logistical challenges of administering vaccines at long-term care facilities. We are on the cusp of mass dissemination, and there should be enough capacity to make sure that the population is vaccinated quickly. We’ve lost a year of our lives to COVID but the finish line is (hopefully) in sight. Vaccination should unleash a huge amount of pent up demand. Banks, which started to report this week, have showed that credit performance metrics have been better than anyone dreamed possible in March of 2020. They’re releasing reserves and preparing to return capital to shareholders. Tech spend is also booming.
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The Year in Review: 2020 was an unprecedented year and The Transcript covered the economy throughout all of its twists and turns. Even though China was battling Covid in 2019, no one really knew what was in store for all of us in 2020. Technology, capital markets, and housing were three industries that boomed. While the stimulus was integral, the economic hero of 2020 was the US consumer. Optimism is high that 2021 will be a more normal year.
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Succinct Summary: This has been the most difficult crisis that the US has faced since most people can remember. An economic recovery is underway but the pace of job growth may be slowing. Companies in the hardest-hit industries are asking for more stimulus.
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Succinct Summary: The economy has had a strong rebound, but the rising virus cases in some states are a cause for worry. Consumers are fatigued from the virus but starting to accept that it may take a while for things to get back to normal. And the old normal may never return. Technology companies have been major beneficiaries of quarantine. Companies are “splurging” on tech.
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Succinct Summary: It is quite clear by now that we are in a recession. The hope is that this is a different kind of recession and that we will be out of it quickly. But that depends on the trajectory of containing the virus. The good news is that things in China look better after containing the virus.
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Succinct Summary: The main takeaway is the dichotomy between a US consumer economy that is doing well and a manufacturing sector that is weak. The uncertainty and slow growth will certainly continue into 2020.
Succinct Summary: The story has been the same for most of this year. Consumer spending and sentiment remains strong while business investment and sentiment stay weak. There may be signs of an industrial uptick in China though.