Succinct Summary: The first few weeks of September are usually filled with conferences where companies talk about long term industry trends. This year it's hard to look long term because things have been moving so fast. Still, the Covid rush seems to have calmed down some and the US is getting comfortable with a new normal. The big question on people's minds: do we ever get back to the old normal?
Succinct Summary: The modern economy has never experienced economic carnage on the scale of COVID19. US GDP is forecast to fall by 30-40% while unemployment is likely to rise to 20-30%. What matters though, is how long it lasts. A 30% rate of decline in production for a quarter is different from a 30% decline for a whole year. As public attention seems to turn from the virus to the economy, debate is on whether we will see a V-shaped recovery or not. There are lots of reasons why we are unlikely to see such a rapid recovery but there are also glimmers of economic hope. Still, the path of the economy seems to pale in comparison to the importance of the path of humanity. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.
Succinct Summary: The story has been the same for most of this year. Consumer spending and sentiment remains strong while business investment and sentiment stay weak. There may be signs of an industrial uptick in China though.
Succinct Summary: The consumer is strong but manufacturing is weak. Everyone is tired of Brexit and tech IPOs probably still have a path to market as long as they have a path to profitability.