The Transcript 11.09.20

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Succinct Summary: It was hard to pay attention to anything other than politics last week, but we're trying our best to keep a focus on the economy. Economic activity appears robust from the earnings reports that we're reading. Even the hardest-hit industries appear to be performing much better than expected. The tech industries that surged may be normalizing though. We're getting a strong new surge in Covid cases, but people seem to feel more prepared than they did last spring. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 08.03.20

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Succinct Summary: There were a lot of major data points about the economy last week but the biggest news of all seemed to be just how well tech companies did despite the massive economic dislocation.  In a quarter where GDP fell at a 33% annualized rate, Apple managed to grow revenue by 11%!  Stimulus probably played some role in tech companies' strong performance, but beyond the stimulus is the fact that COVID has pushed everyone to spend even more time at home and on the internet.  The behavioral shifts appear to be long-lasting too.  20 years after the dot com bubble, the internet is still not done reshaping society. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 07.06.20

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Succinct Summary: The economy has had a strong rebound, but the rising virus cases in some states are a cause for worry.  Consumers are fatigued from the virus but starting to accept that it may take a while for things to get back to normal.  And the old normal may never return.  Technology companies have been major beneficiaries of quarantine.  Companies are "splurging" on tech. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 05.18.20

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Succinct Summary: Economic activity is trending positively as shelter in place orders are slowly lifted around the economy. The data is better than it was but still very bad for any other environment. Markets have discounted a quick return to normalcy, but this week's comments suggest that business leaders expect the recovery to take longer. For the hardest-hit industries, it could be years before they are operating at peak levels again. And even if demand snapped back today it could take months for the supply side of the economy to rev back up. Importantly, employment will likely rebound slower than the rest of the economy, which is a big deal for the demand side of the economy given how high unemployment numbers are. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.