The Transcript 07.06.20

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Succinct Summary: The economy has had a strong rebound, but the rising virus cases in some states are a cause for worry.  Consumers are fatigued from the virus but starting to accept that it may take a while for things to get back to normal.  And the old normal may never return.  Technology companies have been major beneficiaries of quarantine.  Companies are "splurging" on tech. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 06.22.20

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Succinct Summary: Demand continues to bounce back but there are signs that a second wave of Covid may be bubbling up. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 05.18.20

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Succinct Summary: Economic activity is trending positively as shelter in place orders are slowly lifted around the economy. The data is better than it was but still very bad for any other environment. Markets have discounted a quick return to normalcy, but this week's comments suggest that business leaders expect the recovery to take longer. For the hardest-hit industries, it could be years before they are operating at peak levels again. And even if demand snapped back today it could take months for the supply side of the economy to rev back up. Importantly, employment will likely rebound slower than the rest of the economy, which is a big deal for the demand side of the economy given how high unemployment numbers are. Editor's Request: This weekly newsletter is made possible by donations from our readers. If you like what you are reading, click here to donate (Our suggested donation: $10 per month). Help us keep The Transcript going.

The Transcript 03.23.20

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Succinct Summary: The Covid-19 pandemic is an unprecedented global challenge unlike anything that we've seen for 100 years. It is like a war with an invisible enemy. It requires coordination and cooperation from all of us. Many industries like airlines and restaurants are seeing their businesses disappear overnight. But the economic impact is nothing compared to the human impact if we don't act. Hospital systems are already being stretched to their limits and the worst may still be ahead. Let's hope not. Our best hope of averting that fate is to buy ourselves time via social distancing and break down regulatory barriers for potential treatments. (Go to Covidactnow.org to see how important social distancing is in the US).

The Transcript 03.09.20

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Succinct Summary:  The Coronavirus continues to spread globally and no one knows how bad this could get.  On the one hand we have projections of its exponential growth.  On the other is the hope that seasonality will help stem the tide.  In the face of a potential pandemic, the health of the economy seems like a trivial concern.  Still, this panic is having a material affect on economic activity and thereby markets. The Fed has tried to address this with lower rates, but even the Fed admits monetary policy can't do much to stop a virus. Where monetary policy will fail, hopefully modern medicine will succeed. Everyone, stay safe out there!